cross-posted from: https://piefed.world/c/tech/p/1229920/ram-prices-expected-to-rise-another-40-50-in-q3-2026-and-then-30-more-in-q4-as-ai-demand

Jefferies: Memory Outlook

Memory pricing is expected to rise sharply in the near term—climbing 40%–50% QoQ in 3Q26 and another 30%–40% QoQ in 4Q26.

Price hikes are likely to continue into 2027, with a projected 40%–45% YoY increase due to zero wafer capacity growth.

Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are locking down 50% of total capacity (potentially rising to 70%) by signing 2-year LTAs that require a 40% prepayment.

No CE players have signed these LTAs. Because CSPs are swallowing up supply, CE players face severe pressure and a substantial drop in available supply heading into 2027.

China will not threaten the current memory bull market in 2026 or 2027 due to a widening technology gap.

CXMT’s DRAM technology lags 1.5 to 2 generations behind global leaders. Without EUV lithography, they cannot upgrade to DDR6 or HBM3E.

While China’s current expansion only impacts low-end segments, its NAND technology is expected to become more globally competitive and could catch up by 2028.

On HBM4, Samsung is expected to erase its previous tech disadvantage as the industry transitions to hybrid bonding. Additionally, checks suggest Samsung’s 4nm base die for HBM4 offers the best industry performance, giving them a competitive edge.

Source: P Equity Research on X/Twitter.