Some losses are about to get socialised
“set to wipe out” and “wipe out” mean vastly different things in this context.
So who should I short
Socialism for the rich. Here we go again
People keep saying AI boom as if it’s made any money 🤑
Sure has, for a select few.
Whoa its updated and high res.
Think it might bounce back one more time?
Crashes usually include a few sharp rallys
Knife juggling
Dead cat bounce
The trick is stopping before you lose a finger, hand or arm.
Absolutely will, lot of financial institutions still need to finish offloading their shit on the rubes and they need another big IPO for that. All bets are off after that though
Ah, yes, that’s the time of all the ads telling you to invest and buy stocks, so the small investor is holding the bag.
Gen-X, having lived through 1987 (Black Monday), ~2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst , 2008 global financial meltdown, and the 2020 COVID-19 crash:
Us older millennials as well. We just don’t have the advantage of working in the booming 80s.
Neither did the vast majority of Gen-X. The cocaine 80’s is peak Boomer shit.
EDIT: I was born in 73. Started uni in 90. Let’s say you wanted to ride that mid 80’s wave, you should have been in the workforce by 84, that puts you born ~63. By the majority of lists, Gen-X starts on 65.
Yeah. I went to school with rich kids who were suddenly worried about whether daddy could pay for college after that 1987 crash.
Yeah, 1988-1996 was pretty bad. It was my computer hobby that saved my life. No idea where I’d be today had I not turned my side hustle into a career.
I guess I was “lucky” in that I was too poor to be directly impacted my the market back then. But I was young, energetic and at my peak looks-wise, so I can’t shit on that era too much.
dad bailed on us for good that winter. left mom and us kids with nothing. he spent several years globe-trotting with his flavor-of-the-month mistress.
I’m sorry that you had to experience that. I hope you all eventally survived and thrived.
Many kids had part time jobs in highschool. Plus that still directly impacted kids graduating into a good vs bad economy. Younger Gen x, sure. But it still benefits older and mid Gen x.
Most of us were coming of age in the 80s and working at a grocery store if at all.
As a 44-year old who lived through all of those once-in-a-lifetime events (you also forgot 9/11) just once in my life, I’d like a boring decade where nothing happens.
Between the wars, politics, global terror, economic upheaval and the general state of things… I’m really fucking tired boss.
We will never live in peace. It’s just greed and war all the way down.
i’m tired boss…
Same…same.
I think you mean the “once in a lifetime” crashes
Look, it’s another one of those one-in-a-lifetime events! How many now?..
I think there was an early 80s crash as well.
And most of them is some way orchestrated by the US. Motherfuckers and their bullshit capitalism.
It’s all funny money that never existed to begin with lol.
True, but as what happend in the dot com bubble, the middle and lower classes will pay. If you lived in a tech area during the bubble burst then, you’ll know how bad this is going to be worldwide.
So what to do if I suspect a bubble is coming? Sell my investment funds and keep fiat? Buy gold? Buy merchandise to sell later? Buy real estate?
I have no idea how to prepare.
If you see risk being very high, make low risk investments: high yield savings accounts, CDs, bonds.
CDs? Damn I have a bunch of CDs with music, games. I’m gonna be rich.
On the real, I’ve heard the used CD market is making a massive comeback. There’s something to be said about physical media in the age of internet becoming more and more scary.
I already have a ton of cds but I’ve been buying blurays and dvds lately. Gotta keep morale up after infrastructure goes down!
Isn’t it moreso Vinyl?
Bonds? Just not US bonds. Trump says he can take care of US debt with inflation, no problem.
My plan is just to cry.
Yeah, I’m fully disabled and dependent on my 80 yr old aunt working almost full time to provide housing for me in her home. When she dies I’ll be homeless again. So crying seems appropriate 😭
Unless you’re retiring in the next 5-10 years, it’s probably best to stand pat or shift some % out of large-cap funds to mid-caps. But the old adage usually holds true: “time in the market beats timing the market.” In other words, pulling it all out is way harder to get right than just leaving it in.
(Your choice- I am not a financial advisor)
FWIW my actual financial advisor says this exact same thing.
Me neither, hold on for the ride?
Depends how wealthy you are. If you’re wealthy and even remotely intelligent this is where you make even more money. Wealthy people will diversify, they’ll sell some of their tech stocks and put it into anything not related to AI. Be it oil or manufacturing or agriculture etc. Then they liquidate those stocks (or loan against them, depending on how wealthy we’re talking about) to buy up tech stock when they’ve crashed. You then wait a few years and make money.
If you’re not wealthy enough to do that put your money into something stable, like bonds. If you want to be sure you won’t lose money (in the sense that the amount of money you put in won’t go below what you put in, it can still lose value due to inflation) your bank probably offers term deposits where you let your bank reserve your money for a few years and in return they guarantee something like a 2% annual return on your deposit.
And if you’re not wealthy enough to do that… You’re pretty much fucked. Learn to cook and enjoy cheap meals, start budgeting right now, forget enjoyment and hope you don’t get fired.
buy the dip (not financial advice)
OK I went to the store and bought some queso dip… Now what?
You got chips, too, right? … Right?
D’oh! I knew I was forgetting something!
Enjoy the show
Not financial advise but I personally decided to keep my money in MSCI World ex USA ETFand some gold + Stoxx 600. For now it seems my strategy is working. Will see where we go from here
Buy bonds
(Probably not US bonds)
Bullets and toilet paper. 📈
Pay down short term debt.
Build emergency funds.
What short time debt?
Opposite to long term debt.
Long term is mortgages, loans with fixed terms.
Short term is credit cards, pay day loans, overdrafts, stuff like klana etc.
Get those cleared so that the money you earn stays as yours and you’re not paying interest on debt. Once that’s done the money were paying to other people can go into high interest savings so you start earning interest on it, and act as a buffer to stop you going back into debt in the future
Pay off any credit card balance you can.
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Gold not silver small portions is ok, bonds because different types are liquid govt backed interest, real estate is always good they don’t make more land, staying liquid is ideal. The most money is made during down turns if you buy right. Don’t time the market it’ll never happen. Instead grow steady of buy whole under valued assets.
buy real estate
Ohh absolutely, it was devastating to watch, and then to see corporations being bailed out because they were too big to fail. The big question is, is this really the start of a serious crash where the circle jerk of circular money pumped between 4-5 megacorps comes to an end, or do things really go crashing down from here. You need sanity to stabilize…the nuts have spun off the lugs that were holding the wheels of the economy to the hub…i think one wheel just wobbled a little…
I hope you’re not excited for that to happen is what I’m saying. Even if you’re not American, you will feel this.
Ohh absolutely not excited at all. Its a pending shitshow…I didn’t vote for any of this and have already cast my vote to have all these idiots removed from office.
There won’t be an AI bailout as with the auto industry and banking. AI hate is bipartisan and no national-level politician is dumb enough to throw public money at them. They’re not a huge employment/manufacturing concern like autos and they’re not the backbone of our financial system.
(And once again, I love your lug nut analogy, spot on!)
Greetings again 👋
Yah I agree, I don’t think it will be a traditional bailout like the auto industry though which was forgivable loans, I think it’ll likely come in the form of additional stock purchases by the US government, which is wild when you think about it.
They’re not a huge employment/manufacturing concern like autos and they’re not the backbone of our financial system.
No but they (AI companies and those claiming to be one including chip companies) directly influence the stock market, and this administration is having its day manipulating the hell out of it making a ton of money along the way. So if there is a way for the to make money on it, it will absolutely happen. Also the chip companies have national defense interests and so it’ a similar scenario as the DOD’s mission can not ever be hampered lol. The line must go up lol.
Ha! And thank you.
One sticking point, Trump can’t spend that kind of money and he’s about to lose the House and possibly the Senate.
We can only hope…but his family can spend it.
LOL, the entire Trump clan couldn’t put a tiny dent in a bailout that would cost an easy trillion dollars.
AI hate is bipartisan and no national-level politician is dumb enough to throw public money at them.
Trump loves him some AI bros, though. And could easily “justify” dumping shitloads of public money into them because using AI in the military (bad idea in the first place) makes AI a “national security priority”.
Trump can’t spend that kind of money. Despite Congress bowing to him, they still hold the power of the purse.
If they actually opt to use it. Which is a big fat fucking if.
Also, Trump might just steal it from somewhere. (Where has all that Venezuelan oil money gone?) And who’s going to stop him? The Supreme Court has already ruled that he can do basically anything he wants.
and then will there be jobs?
You would assume so…but who knows. We have a wanna be dictator at the helm in the US that has the mental capacity of goldfish, so fiscal responsibility isn’t exactly this administrations forte!
I forsee layoffs instead of more jobs.
It is quite possible, the giant hiring spree during covid and immediately after was never going to last unfortunately. Maybe after the midterms things will change in a positive direction.
They are desperately trying to stave off the crash until Democrats have a majority so it can be blamed on the Democrats.
Ahh good point, it is certainly a method that works for them since they really don’t have much else to campaign on.
While that has worked in the past, I don’t think it’s gonna fly this time.
Optics matter and right now GOP are far more all in on AI, it’s also Cheeto’s halfway point, things crashing badly with Dems having some power won’t look like it’s the Dems in control.
The fact that the economy took a bad turn right when he came into office is an association that most people won’t forget.
Trump isn’t the only American with the memory span of a goldfish, it is rather endemic.
What a terrible insult to goldfish.
It is, but there is no reason to be coy about it.
But can you be koi about it?
Man, there is something really fishy about your question? Lol
No, the billionaires will continue to hoard.
If you can’t afford bread, you should just eat cake.
If you can’t afford bread, you should just eat
cakethe rich.
It was never even actual fiat currency. Just numbers in a computer somewhere.
Exactly, presumed value based upon future worth
Everyone here is so excited for the bubble to pop, even though it would make everyone’s life harder.
As for me? I too am also excited for it to pop.
Why? Well what the hell is the alternative, I’ll take a market correction and return to sane time any day of the week but it seems that them oligarchs are too horney for their game of financial Russian roulette.
I rather them putting the gun down, but if they insist on playing then I want them to lose faster.
The longer the bubble inflates the worse the pop of going to be. Bursting now is going to be bad, but a hell of a lot better than bursting later.
I’m excited for the greenhouse gas emissions to drop!
I wouldn’t hold my breath.
You’re gonna have to if they keep emitting. There’ll be nothing left to breathe
The problem is the robber barons are unaffected by the crashes. In fact, it just becomes another buying opportunity for them with all that free money lying around. They just keep getting richer. It’s the rest of us that suffer.
Unfortunately they never lose.
Yeah, pretty sure they will get bailed out.
It will be 2008 all over again and we are still in the 2008 aftermath. Democrats are not brave enough to change things. No one who is going to be allowed near power is talking breaking up the monopolies and regulation. I don’t think things will improve until they have got worse still.
As a Brit, I just hope we, and Europe in general, kick America dependency to not get pulled round by their whims and eventual collapse. But most people’s digital lives are completely dependent on American monopolies. So much so they don’t dare even see it.
I don’t think so on this one. Logistically it’s toast. Society has a negative outlook on it. You can’t sell AI like you can firearms and politicians aren’t going to stick their neck out for it.
It will all be about maintaining America lead/power (monopolies). Wrapped in a flag. It doesn’t have to be popular. There are only two parties and they will both be for it.
Well put. That’s the summary of it. Sadly
Hope we are wrong, I just don’t see going differently.
I’d say it’s by design. There’s a strong push against even something like ranked voting. While that has it’s flaws voting A or B doesn’t work. Especially A or B can’t identify as either nor can be trusted. Prime example is Charlie Christ.
They can’t really bail them out like they did in 08. Just to compare Ford to OpenAI for sake of my argument. The collapse of Ford risked not only losing a company but also the institutional knowledge within on top of the fact that Ford itself could eventually pay off the loan which isn’t even getting into other benefits, for comparison what does the collapse of OpenAI risk beyond some edge case nonsense hell could they even pay off a loan. Trying to bail out the AI industry would be dead on arrival by default, the best you may be able to do is downsize them massively and maybe make them profitable via specialized sub industries but yet again that risks them collapsing regardless.
More to the point is the magnitude. Note that Ford ultimately didn’t get a bailout, but between GM and financial sector they did about $500 billion, which adjusted for inflation would be about $800 billion. That’s not enough to even cover OpenAI’s obligations by itself, let alone the broader AI industry. GM’s bailout was $50 billion.
Thanks for correcting and adding to my statement on how severe this whole thing is, I have it in my head but I’m a bit shit at elaboration. Also I knew it was one of the big three but I couldn’t remember if it was Ford or GM.
I’m not saying it is a good idea. Or even one the populous wants. I’d be shocked if it all allowed to collapse and dominoes fall where they may. It will all be wrapped in the flag and about maintaining America lead/power (monopolies) and force fed to voters by both parties. There are only two parties to buy.
Oh I got what you meant I just disagree. My point was that AI is a money burning party with nothing to show unlike basically any other industry, even if you bail them out once they’ll likely need to be bailed out again by the next quarter since they don’t really have a product to sell. Not even getting into all the debt a lot of these companies have or any future contracts that have been signed.
Point is even if they are bailed out it will amount to doing a blood transfusion on someone with an actively bleeding artery. They are far more likely to wipe everything else out than succeed, though I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the end goal for dipshits like Thiel. Maybe it’s a weird but of optism but I can’t quite see enough congresscritters siding with that since basically all of them gain their power through the government and the current economic systems continued existence.
You say they have nothing, but a lot of people are using it. Now I’d argue many aren’t getting value out of it, even at a 10th to 100th the actual cost, but they think they are. (Often it is someone else has to fix the slop)
And I’m not saying a government bailout is the end of it. It just kicks the can down the road further. And probably makes the final pop bigger.
There is a reason these guys are building bunkers. It’s not AI they are fearing. It is us. Rising up and demanded retribution. They are literally trying to work out how they can keep their security people under control in a collapse. And hoping to replace them with bots. Thinking they can maintain that themselves. Or leave earth and hide where we can’t go. It’s all absolutely mental.
2008 had a very wide blast radius. If it was just a handful or even most banks that were in trouble it probably wouldn’t have been a bailout. Mortgage securities were everywhere and no one knew how much they were actually worth. Most the fortune 500 facing a double digit percentage loss was looking likely, which would have been catastrophic.
Compared to today it might be more money, but it’s isolated to the tech sector. Even then a lot of the worst of it is not on publicly traded companies .
When the dominoes fall, it is unlikely to be neatly contained due to the scale if nothing else.
I don’t think things will improve until they have got worse still.
Shit won’t improve before people kill oligarchs. We’ve not seen a peasant correction in Europe since the French revolution.
This is why they are building bunker fortresses.
Oh no, my life savings (2 sticks of DDR5) will decrease in value.
You mean Sam’s ddr5?
I get to use it 5% of the time (e: for $20/mo)
the herd animals who did this are incapable of learning. unless they are taken out of the system, this will recurring. like it has every few years since the turn of the century.
almost accurate. financial regulations put in place after the Great Depression kept relative stability for 50 years. as deregulation accelerted at the end if the 80s, swings resumed and we are niw in the boom/bust cycles that were so painful from 1870 to 1933.
Also not coincidentally the time of the robber barons
they and their kin must be made a terrible example of. if the only basis for society is punishment, we must punish them more, and have more society. breed them to punish, I guess, if we can’t do a utopia.
Yes be cause the other herd that wants to retry communism after it’s failed miserably multiple times is a much better option.
Crazy idea, but maybe we just tax the wealthy? There’s always going to be idiots in charge of stuff no matter what the system is, but maybe we could just limit the power (and therefore mitigate the damage that can be done) of those with power.
I’m not saying we have to be communist after. I’m saying we cannot have a stable system until an example is made.
you ‘anti communists’ and your ‘future for white children’ bullshit really need to be less loud. there aren’t that many of you.
Taxing the rich is “communism”, dontchaknow?
Anti-trust laws? Communism!
Wanting to see LGBT+ live equally and with dignity in their own country?.. pinko af communism!
Healthcare for all? You better believe it’s communism!
USA needs to understand the overlords made it a dirty word on purpose. Just like they did with islamic words like “sharia” or “jihad”. Or words from Black culture or ideas that are empowering them such as “woke” or “b.l.m.” or “critical race theory”.
Even China isn’t really a communist country anymore. It’s authoritarian and hyper capitalist af with “Chinese characteristics”.
We should take all the good parts of commie ideology without wanting centrally planned 1 party horror show with gulags and re-education camps. Such as nationalized critical infrastructure instead of private power and oil companies making billions while people suffer. Tax the wealthy. Fund public education adequately etc etc.
Most of the stuff you list are actually liberal policies. You know liberals those evil enemies of the tankies?
Communism is about state control of the economy. Shit that failed every time it was tried.
The whole point of the communist propaganda is to make you hate liberals that want the same things you do, and to make you spout communist slogans that make you sound like a crazy person. If you just said “I want to tax the rich, bust up big corporations, and implement universal healthcare” most people will agree with that. But If you rant on like “seize the means of production late stage capitalism eat the rich stalin did notihng wrong, china is a utopia blah blah blah” everyone rightly considers you a crazy person and nothing happens.
Maybe just stick to talking about the policies you want and stop with the commie talk and maybe things might happen. But then you would be saying the same thing as liberals oh noes! That’s bad according to the influencers that are heavily promoted by corporate social media. Always gotta do what corporate social media influencers tell you! Liberal are baaaaaaaad. They just talk about raising taxes on the rich and improving healthcare, they might not have even read Marx! BAD LIBERALS!
Neoliberalism is pretty fkn bad too though, won’t you agree?
Those lies they keep telling about free market yet always supporting corporate welfare and socialism-for-wealthy?
Communism is about state control of the economy
“Communism” is loosely defined but means communal control of the economy. How that is achieved is debated but it isn’t necessarily through a state. I suggest reading up on leninism (which is what I believe you mean when you say communism) and libertarian communism (which is an example of non-state communism).
As to “state control of the economy”, it is so oversimplified a worldview as to be useless. The state always exerts some control over the economy because at a minimum it collects taxes. There’s an extremely wide variety of ways the state can interact with the economy, and Western states in fact do a lot of it through monetary policy, tax incentives, subsidies, licenses, tariffs, government contracts, state enterprises, etc. Conversely, leninist states of the 20th century did experiment with various schemes of autonomy of economic agents (often termed “state capitalism”), through stuff like the soviet NEP or yugo “self-management”. Finally, some leftists view states like the USSR or mainland China as having simply recreated capitalism, with the nomenklatura owning the means of production as a ruling class separate from the workers.
I suggest you read up more on the things you wish to comment on. How can one make a meaningful contribution to a conversation without being willing to listen? Right now it seems as if you haven’t even read the Wikipedia page on “communism”.
This was the most pathetic economic bubble I’ve ever been a part of
Fully agree. At least in the past bubbles, some parts of it trickled to the rest of the economy and we had a societal bonanza.
During the dotcom bubble you could start a company and make millions out of thin air, you’d pay your engineers ridiculous amounts and everyone could get a job.
During the housing bubble everyone could get loans and buy a house, live a decent life for a moment. Real economy, not just Wall Street, was soaring.
AI bubble? Layoffs for everyone. Sense of impending doom all around. Clear signs of financial manipulation directly in front of us. Egomaniac CEOs being obnoxious. Inflation racing. Fucking lame, kill it now, please and let’s start over.
All of these of course resulted in misery, and it’ll come again. But fuck it, at least the other bubbles were fun.
This one has seemed to be a bubble of stupid by stupid. Like 90% of humanity straight up sat this one out because it sounds like a bad idea, but somehow it’ll crash global economies anyway.
Other bubbles were reasonably hidden, or had some surprise elements, but we’ve all been watching and talking amongst ourselves about this one.
It’s like watching a degenerate gambler keep going after everyone at the table and even a couple of people walking by have tried to intervene.
Pathetic indeed.
No bailouts for these leeches
Their bailout will be an IPO with an absurd valuation, where pension funds are forced to buy them and we all become their exit liquidity.
WE.ALL.SAW.THIS.COMING.
I think they saw it coming as well.
There is a song playing, fewer chairs than people running and it is about to stop. They want to earn money and hope they are not the last one to sit.
They are playing a game and they know it
They saw it coming. This is a legal bank heist. The ultra rich rob the banks then will cry poverty (to big to fail) and demand to be rescued only rob the banks again another day. This isn’t the first time they’ve pulled this scheme, it won’t be the last. As long as it keeps working they’ll keep doing it.
It’s legit crazy how financially illiterate top executives can sometimes be.
In a company I worked for, they decided to stop using on-prem systems and move them to cloud servers. I made a rough calculation on a coffee break with colleagues that the move increases costs by roughly 10 times. It was unbelievable and all we could do was laugh.
Some 4 months later it was announced that the cloud systems are to be decommissioned due to costs and employees have to find a way to do the same things on their laptops (which will be upgraded if needed). I still cannot wrap my head around it, there must have been some nasty politics or absolute numeral illiteracy going on in the background.
I worked in the title insurance industry around 2005, data entry. So I saw thousands of mortgages being issued every week, and my job was to data enter mortgage details and data enter the research showing clear title of the property.
I was 19 years old and renting a studio apartment and even I was shocked that every. Single. Mortgage had an adjustable rate or balloon rider on it. Reading the terms of those I was thinking how the hell will any of these people make their mortage payments in 4 or 5 years?
When I would talk to people older than me with homes and investments they would get genuinely upset and tell me I couldn’t possibly understand, the banks know what they are doing. Ok.
nasty politics or absolute numeral illiteracy
Or kickbacks from the cloud service providers.
Well, some of the C-level executives had shady ties to cloud companies…
I’m currently wearing my entirely-unsurprised-face. Look, I’m never going to be an advocate of the dystopic post-capitalistic hellscape of Cyberpunk, but there’s something to be said for a Militech-style severance package.
“I was hoping to reach Anthony Gilchrist on this number,” said Faraday tentatively.
“I’d tell you that I regret to inform you that I just executed Mr. Gilchrist in his office for violations of corporate policy five minutes ago,” replied Meredith Stout smugly, “but then I’d be lying.”
“About executing him?” asked Faraday cautiously.
“About regretting it.”
I would be dramatically less upset if I was surprised. Its painful to of shouted this from the rooftops for what feels like years now, only to be dismissed so easily. What males it even more painful is its the same idiots that where so desperate for nfts to work because their lives are so pathetic the only way they can see it improving is yoloing it on some tiktok fad they just learned about a week ago.
The same people that are desperately defending ai on every turn desperately need it to work because they have taken full bait on the scam. They probably bought some 10k course from the PDB podcast or something like that on “how to get rich quick with ai for dummies” and then wasted 7.5k in tokens to make a web wrapper that sends all user input to Claude and does literally nothing. All their retirements are getting fucked by ai and they probably dumped all their personal savings into ai stocks. Literally the whole american economy is held up by a scam and instead of looking at death in the eye people rather claim ignorance and get mad and upset when you point out the truth.
I rapidly flip between “everyone is just misguided and have been intentionally deprived of good information”, and “oh god the stupid people are running the planet, they are lesser beings who only prevent progress.” And that usually just depends on my mood.
I just don’t understand how practically every business in recent times has operated on this model, and its not just obvious to everyone that this is the new scam to siphon money out of you instead of a real grass roots business that has actual real proven thing.
